Forex Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis
May 13th, 2010
Here we will point out the two main disciplines used for Forex analysis purposes. The first one is the so-called Fundamental Analysis, which is meant to describe and analyze the overall conditions and state of country’s economy and provides the big picture of the national economy. Some experts use this as a base to find indicators that will determine the price movements and according to them can also help predicting those movements.
The Forex Technical analysis uses indications based on historical data and trend patterns. The main idea is to compare and analyze charted patterns, which will give indications about the price movements and the direction of these movements.
The answer to the question “which one is the better one?” cannot be synonymous. This means that they both should be used simultaneously and the traders who ignore one of these methods to the expense of the other are risking to incur a major failure. The reason for this is that using only one of these analyses will provide you with partial information and gives only one of the aspects of the whole picture.
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In the example bellow we will demonstrate what may realistically happen when one of the analytical methods is ignored:
Let’s imagine that you are using the Forex Technical Analysis only and are ignoring the economy reports and the news. You are relying completely and only on your own patterns and charts. What happens next is that according to couple of indicators you foresee a big movement and an opportunity to gain huge profits. You are expecting a huge jump from the dollar and decide to act straight away and buy a lot of this currency. Your prediction and the charts show that soon you will make a big profit out of this operation.
Then out of nowhere and absolutely unexpectedly the currency – the dollar in this case – falls by 50 pips instead. And you are questioning yourself how is that possible providing all the indications from the analysis showed that the rise was inevitable?
While disappointed and angry at your technical analysis, you leave your PC and turn on the TV set and accidentally bump onto the financial news where the latest news show an unpredicted and unprecedented jump in the unemployment, way beyond the forecasts of the government’s economy experts. And this is not all – a big international corporation announces also unpredicted huge fall in the revenues with the similar perspective for the next couple of quarters.
These two events prove to be powerful enough to shake the financial market to its roots and to turn it upside down, so the predicted sharp rise of the dollar does not happen at all. All this means that if you have had this information in advance and have stayed open to the fundamental analysis, you could have prevented all of this from happening and all of the incurred losses.
The opposite would have had exactly the same effect – if you were relying solely on the FA. By using the fundamental analysis only you will get the overall picture and directions in general, but the details like when, where and how much to buy/sell will be out of your reach.
All this prove the rule that the simultaneous approach is the right one. By using both analyses combined, your perspectives of success are much greater.
To generalize at the end – discovering the trends and common patterns of the market plus keeping yourself well informed about the political and economical events that will reflect on the market will aid to predict the future price movements, which will help for the success with the Forex currency trading.